1 00:00:04,630 --> 00:00:02,869 in this video i'm going to demonstrate 2 00:00:06,710 --> 00:00:04,640 four observables 3 00:00:08,870 --> 00:00:06,720 four things that you can verify yourself 4 00:00:11,669 --> 00:00:08,880 that demonstrate that the gimbal ufo 5 00:00:13,910 --> 00:00:11,679 video almost certainly shows a glare 6 00:00:15,669 --> 00:00:13,920 that hides the actual object 7 00:00:19,429 --> 00:00:15,679 and that the shape of the glare is only 8 00:00:22,550 --> 00:00:19,439 rotating because the camera is rotating 9 00:00:23,590 --> 00:00:22,560 briefly the four observables are 10 00:00:25,670 --> 00:00:23,600 one 11 00:00:27,990 --> 00:00:25,680 no rotation when banking 12 00:00:30,790 --> 00:00:28,000 the shape does not rotate when the jet 13 00:00:32,150 --> 00:00:30,800 banks everything else rotates the shape 14 00:00:33,350 --> 00:00:32,160 does not 15 00:00:35,670 --> 00:00:33,360 two 16 00:00:37,670 --> 00:00:35,680 bumps before rotation 17 00:00:39,510 --> 00:00:37,680 when the shape does rotate there's a 18 00:00:42,069 --> 00:00:39,520 bump right at the start sometimes a 19 00:00:43,190 --> 00:00:42,079 fraction of a second before 20 00:00:45,029 --> 00:00:43,200 three 21 00:00:46,869 --> 00:00:45,039 rotating patterns 22 00:00:48,630 --> 00:00:46,879 when the shape rotates there's a 23 00:00:51,350 --> 00:00:48,640 matching rotation of light patterns 24 00:00:52,470 --> 00:00:51,360 across the entire image 25 00:00:54,950 --> 00:00:52,480 four 26 00:00:57,029 --> 00:00:54,960 derotation matches 27 00:00:59,830 --> 00:00:57,039 the rotation of the shape matches 28 00:01:02,229 --> 00:00:59,840 exactly the amount of d rotation needed 29 00:01:04,630 --> 00:01:02,239 for tracking the target 30 00:01:06,230 --> 00:01:04,640 the first three are simple observations 31 00:01:08,310 --> 00:01:06,240 they don't need any math to see their 32 00:01:09,910 --> 00:01:08,320 implications just an understanding of 33 00:01:12,390 --> 00:01:09,920 the camera system 34 00:01:14,469 --> 00:01:12,400 the last one does require math but i can 35 00:01:15,910 --> 00:01:14,479 also demonstrate it with a simulation so 36 00:01:19,749 --> 00:01:15,920 you can see the math matches the 37 00:01:24,230 --> 00:01:22,070 before we get into the four observables 38 00:01:26,070 --> 00:01:24,240 we need to understand what is going on 39 00:01:27,910 --> 00:01:26,080 what are we looking at and how is it 40 00:01:30,870 --> 00:01:27,920 filmed 41 00:01:33,030 --> 00:01:30,880 the gimbal ufo video is the poster child 42 00:01:34,950 --> 00:01:33,040 of modern ufo videos 43 00:01:37,510 --> 00:01:34,960 it is the most interesting of the three 44 00:01:39,990 --> 00:01:37,520 videos taken by navy pilots 45 00:01:42,550 --> 00:01:40,000 it appears to show a source-shaped 46 00:01:45,190 --> 00:01:42,560 object skimming over the clouds 47 00:01:47,510 --> 00:01:45,200 the object seems to slow down and turn 48 00:01:49,429 --> 00:01:47,520 on its end in a way that appears to defy 49 00:01:51,830 --> 00:01:49,439 aerodynamics 50 00:01:53,510 --> 00:01:51,840 it's the only navy video that seems to 51 00:01:54,550 --> 00:01:53,520 show good evidence of advanced 52 00:01:56,230 --> 00:01:54,560 technology 53 00:01:57,749 --> 00:01:56,240 and so it's very important to people 54 00:02:01,429 --> 00:01:57,759 making the case that is of 55 00:02:04,709 --> 00:02:03,350 here i'm only going to make the case 56 00:02:06,830 --> 00:02:04,719 that what we are looking at is a 57 00:02:09,350 --> 00:02:06,840 rotating glare that hides the actual 58 00:02:11,350 --> 00:02:09,360 object this does not mean it's not some 59 00:02:13,830 --> 00:02:11,360 really interesting object that's still 60 00:02:15,510 --> 00:02:13,840 unknown unidentified 61 00:02:17,830 --> 00:02:15,520 i'm not going to address the audio that 62 00:02:19,750 --> 00:02:17,840 describes a fleet of them or what's 63 00:02:22,390 --> 00:02:19,760 actually going on in the wider context 64 00:02:24,229 --> 00:02:22,400 of military planes in a training range 65 00:02:25,350 --> 00:02:24,239 just the rotating glare part of the 66 00:02:26,790 --> 00:02:25,360 puzzle 67 00:02:29,430 --> 00:02:26,800 i'm also not going to address the 68 00:02:31,830 --> 00:02:29,440 location and the path of the object that 69 00:02:34,150 --> 00:02:31,840 is i believe being answered by the work 70 00:02:36,550 --> 00:02:34,160 of edward currant who was built upon the 71 00:02:38,790 --> 00:02:36,560 analysis of various people to extract 72 00:02:40,710 --> 00:02:38,800 the flight information of the jet and to 73 00:02:43,110 --> 00:02:40,720 build a variety of 3d models that 74 00:02:45,190 --> 00:02:43,120 replicate the video it turns out several 75 00:02:47,509 --> 00:02:45,200 solutions fit but the simplest was found 76 00:02:50,229 --> 00:02:47,519 by modeling another jet about 30 miles 77 00:02:52,150 --> 00:02:50,239 away flying away and a bit to the left 78 00:02:55,110 --> 00:02:52,160 i'll include links to his videos and the 79 00:02:57,190 --> 00:02:55,120 discussion thread in the description 80 00:02:59,270 --> 00:02:57,200 before we get to the four observables no 81 00:03:01,030 --> 00:02:59,280 banking rotation bumps rotating patterns 82 00:03:03,270 --> 00:03:01,040 and the d rotation match 83 00:03:05,430 --> 00:03:03,280 we need to understand the camera which 84 00:03:08,790 --> 00:03:05,440 in this case is an aptlyer system on a 85 00:03:10,470 --> 00:03:08,800 us navy fa-18 it's a targeting pod made 86 00:03:12,470 --> 00:03:10,480 by raytheon 87 00:03:13,750 --> 00:03:12,480 we're looking at an infrared image 88 00:03:15,990 --> 00:03:13,760 showing heat 89 00:03:18,070 --> 00:03:16,000 the object in the middle shows up as hot 90 00:03:19,910 --> 00:03:18,080 there's an aura around it that looks 91 00:03:21,430 --> 00:03:19,920 colder but that's just an artifact of 92 00:03:23,830 --> 00:03:21,440 thermal imaging 93 00:03:25,110 --> 00:03:23,840 what we are interested in is this saucer 94 00:03:26,949 --> 00:03:25,120 shape 95 00:03:29,750 --> 00:03:26,959 we know they are zoomed in an incredible 96 00:03:31,990 --> 00:03:29,760 amount it's in narrow mode with a two 97 00:03:33,830 --> 00:03:32,000 times additional zoom so the camera is 98 00:03:36,229 --> 00:03:33,840 only showing about a third of a degree 99 00:03:37,910 --> 00:03:36,239 of the sky to put that into perspective 100 00:03:40,550 --> 00:03:37,920 go out and look at the moon which is 101 00:03:43,110 --> 00:03:40,560 half a degree across imagine a square 102 00:03:44,949 --> 00:03:43,120 about two-thirds that size that's what 103 00:03:46,869 --> 00:03:44,959 the camera is looking at 104 00:03:49,509 --> 00:03:46,879 so we know that when the pilot says is 105 00:03:51,589 --> 00:03:49,519 rotated he's just looking at the screen 106 00:03:53,110 --> 00:03:51,599 the exact same thing we are looking at 107 00:03:55,030 --> 00:03:53,120 it would be too small to see with a 108 00:03:57,670 --> 00:03:55,040 naked eye because it's several miles 109 00:04:00,070 --> 00:03:57,680 away the camera is mounted on a two-axis 110 00:04:02,470 --> 00:04:00,080 gimbal system this might be a clue as 111 00:04:04,470 --> 00:04:02,480 the official navy title for the video is 112 00:04:06,070 --> 00:04:04,480 gimbal which might indicate that the 113 00:04:07,190 --> 00:04:06,080 gimbal system has something to do with 114 00:04:08,789 --> 00:04:07,200 it 115 00:04:11,270 --> 00:04:08,799 gimbal's system just means that there 116 00:04:13,270 --> 00:04:11,280 are two or more rotation axes where 117 00:04:15,670 --> 00:04:13,280 rotating one axis changes the 118 00:04:17,749 --> 00:04:15,680 orientation of the other 119 00:04:19,430 --> 00:04:17,759 with the app flare camera there's roll 120 00:04:21,830 --> 00:04:19,440 where the front part of the pod rotates 121 00:04:23,830 --> 00:04:21,840 along an axis parallel to the bore sight 122 00:04:26,950 --> 00:04:23,840 and pitch where the ball at the front of 123 00:04:29,990 --> 00:04:26,960 the pod rotates around another axis 124 00:04:32,550 --> 00:04:30,000 the roll rotation affects the pitch axis 125 00:04:34,870 --> 00:04:32,560 so initially pitches up and down but if 126 00:04:37,189 --> 00:04:34,880 the pod rolls 90 degrees and the pitch 127 00:04:39,270 --> 00:04:37,199 axis is now vertical and pitch is 128 00:04:40,790 --> 00:04:39,280 actually left and right 129 00:04:42,950 --> 00:04:40,800 to track a target 130 00:04:44,870 --> 00:04:42,960 the pod uses a combination of pitch and 131 00:04:46,230 --> 00:04:44,880 roll to make the line of sight point at 132 00:04:48,390 --> 00:04:46,240 the target 133 00:04:50,390 --> 00:04:48,400 roll by itself will just move the line 134 00:04:51,990 --> 00:04:50,400 of sight in a circle which is not that 135 00:04:54,230 --> 00:04:52,000 useful for tracking 136 00:04:57,030 --> 00:04:54,240 pitch by itself will move the line of 137 00:04:59,590 --> 00:04:57,040 sight along a line this line sometimes 138 00:05:01,670 --> 00:04:59,600 coincides with a target but usually you 139 00:05:05,029 --> 00:05:01,680 have to use both the pod roll and the 140 00:05:06,790 --> 00:05:05,039 pod pitch together 141 00:05:09,110 --> 00:05:06,800 in the gimbal video we are tracking a 142 00:05:10,390 --> 00:05:09,120 target that starts out at 54 degrees to 143 00:05:12,870 --> 00:05:10,400 the left of the jet 144 00:05:14,710 --> 00:05:12,880 and ends up seven degrees to the right 145 00:05:16,790 --> 00:05:14,720 this is largely because the jet is 146 00:05:19,189 --> 00:05:16,800 banked and turned to the left bringing 147 00:05:21,350 --> 00:05:19,199 the target around in front of it 148 00:05:24,070 --> 00:05:21,360 the movement relative to the clouds is 149 00:05:25,830 --> 00:05:24,080 parallax and it slows down as we line up 150 00:05:27,749 --> 00:05:25,840 with a target but does not stop 151 00:05:29,510 --> 00:05:27,759 indicating the target has some movement 152 00:05:31,270 --> 00:05:29,520 to the left 153 00:05:33,830 --> 00:05:31,280 what we are interested in here is the 154 00:05:35,909 --> 00:05:33,840 apparent rotation 155 00:05:37,990 --> 00:05:35,919 the discussion and the simulation is all 156 00:05:40,230 --> 00:05:38,000 in terms of angles which are all either 157 00:05:42,390 --> 00:05:40,240 shown on the screen or derived from data 158 00:05:43,990 --> 00:05:42,400 on the screen and are independent of the 159 00:05:46,070 --> 00:05:44,000 actual distance to the object and its 160 00:05:48,310 --> 00:05:46,080 speed 161 00:05:50,710 --> 00:05:48,320 as the object is tracked from 54 left to 162 00:05:53,270 --> 00:05:50,720 seven right it stays at a constant minus 163 00:05:55,110 --> 00:05:53,280 two degrees i.e two degrees below 164 00:05:56,790 --> 00:05:55,120 horizontal 165 00:05:58,950 --> 00:05:56,800 in the simulator this is shown with a 166 00:06:00,950 --> 00:05:58,960 white dot 167 00:06:03,270 --> 00:06:00,960 moving the target across the range of 168 00:06:05,670 --> 00:06:03,280 angles shows how the pod needs to modify 169 00:06:07,590 --> 00:06:05,680 its pitch and roll to track the target 170 00:06:09,350 --> 00:06:07,600 the graph here shows the roll angle of 171 00:06:11,029 --> 00:06:09,360 the pot in a simple configuration with 172 00:06:13,110 --> 00:06:11,039 the jet horizontal 173 00:06:15,670 --> 00:06:13,120 it starts out with a part rolled about 174 00:06:17,830 --> 00:06:15,680 90 degrees clockwise initially most of 175 00:06:19,430 --> 00:06:17,840 the pod movement is pitch but as the 176 00:06:21,909 --> 00:06:19,440 target gets closer to being straight 177 00:06:23,590 --> 00:06:21,919 ahead the pod is forced to turn more and 178 00:06:25,670 --> 00:06:23,600 there's a very rapid role as it crosses 179 00:06:29,110 --> 00:06:25,680 straight ahead and it ends up rolled 180 00:06:31,110 --> 00:06:29,120 about 70 degrees counterclockwise 181 00:06:33,110 --> 00:06:31,120 it helps to see why if we turn on a view 182 00:06:34,790 --> 00:06:33,120 that shows the roll rings in red and the 183 00:06:37,270 --> 00:06:34,800 pitch lines in blue 184 00:06:39,270 --> 00:06:37,280 pitch can only go along a blue line 185 00:06:41,110 --> 00:06:39,280 which is about all you need at the start 186 00:06:42,950 --> 00:06:41,120 but towards the center the pitch lines 187 00:06:47,029 --> 00:06:42,960 become perpendicular to where we want to 188 00:06:49,350 --> 00:06:47,039 go so we have to rely on roll instead 189 00:06:51,110 --> 00:06:49,360 the jet is actually back to the left 190 00:06:53,029 --> 00:06:51,120 which just changes the initial roll 191 00:06:55,189 --> 00:06:53,039 angle as it still has to roll the same 192 00:06:57,749 --> 00:06:55,199 amount so the curve is the same just 193 00:06:59,749 --> 00:06:57,759 shift it up 194 00:07:01,749 --> 00:06:59,759 now if we look at the video the bank 195 00:07:04,309 --> 00:07:01,759 angle of the plane shown relative to the 196 00:07:06,309 --> 00:07:04,319 artificial horizon is not constant it 197 00:07:09,189 --> 00:07:06,319 changes bank angle to the left four 198 00:07:11,110 --> 00:07:09,199 times and to the right once 199 00:07:12,950 --> 00:07:11,120 we can extract that data from the video 200 00:07:14,390 --> 00:07:12,960 with motion tracking and add it to the 201 00:07:15,749 --> 00:07:14,400 simulation 202 00:07:18,070 --> 00:07:15,759 the banking to the left 203 00:07:20,550 --> 00:07:18,080 counter-clockwise actually means that 204 00:07:21,510 --> 00:07:20,560 the pod needs to rotate counterclockwise 205 00:07:23,110 --> 00:07:21,520 less 206 00:07:25,510 --> 00:07:23,120 this makes the curve a bit more 207 00:07:28,870 --> 00:07:25,520 irregular but it keeps it in a narrower 208 00:07:33,189 --> 00:07:31,110 as well as banking the jet has to pitch 209 00:07:34,629 --> 00:07:33,199 up a bit in flight to maintain an angle 210 00:07:37,749 --> 00:07:34,639 of attack 211 00:07:39,510 --> 00:07:37,759 we use a base pitch of 3.6 degrees which 212 00:07:43,189 --> 00:07:39,520 is in line with the values given in the 213 00:07:45,670 --> 00:07:43,199 f 18 ops manual for 25 000 feet 214 00:07:48,550 --> 00:07:45,680 this value is also scaled up by the bank 215 00:07:50,230 --> 00:07:48,560 angle to account for loss of lift 216 00:07:51,990 --> 00:07:50,240 the interesting thing about pitching up 217 00:07:53,830 --> 00:07:52,000 the plane is that it flattens out the 218 00:07:55,350 --> 00:07:53,840 curve of the roll needed to track the 219 00:07:58,070 --> 00:07:55,360 target 220 00:08:00,390 --> 00:07:58,080 the combination of banking and pitching 221 00:08:02,790 --> 00:08:00,400 reduces the required total roll by about 222 00:08:04,710 --> 00:08:02,800 30 degrees 223 00:08:07,029 --> 00:08:04,720 so now we've got a nice model of exactly 224 00:08:09,510 --> 00:08:07,039 how the pod should rotate and pitch to 225 00:08:11,430 --> 00:08:09,520 track a target from 54 left to seven 226 00:08:12,950 --> 00:08:11,440 right whilst correctly accounting for 227 00:08:15,350 --> 00:08:12,960 the motion of the jet 228 00:08:17,589 --> 00:08:15,360 so what about this glare 229 00:08:19,270 --> 00:08:17,599 a problem with rolling the camera or in 230 00:08:22,710 --> 00:08:19,280 the case of the apflier what is known as 231 00:08:25,350 --> 00:08:22,720 the a vocal four optics the front bit is 232 00:08:26,710 --> 00:08:25,360 that it also rolls the image 233 00:08:28,230 --> 00:08:26,720 for example 234 00:08:30,550 --> 00:08:28,240 if we're looking to the left then the 235 00:08:31,510 --> 00:08:30,560 camera is rotated clockwise nearly 90 236 00:08:33,269 --> 00:08:31,520 degrees 237 00:08:35,509 --> 00:08:33,279 see the little triangle here in the view 238 00:08:36,389 --> 00:08:35,519 pyramid or frustum that indicates the 239 00:08:38,310 --> 00:08:36,399 top 240 00:08:40,070 --> 00:08:38,320 the clockwise rotation of the camera 241 00:08:41,909 --> 00:08:40,080 means the image is rotated 242 00:08:44,070 --> 00:08:41,919 counterclockwise 243 00:08:45,590 --> 00:08:44,080 here's the pod side view compare it to 244 00:08:48,389 --> 00:08:45,600 what's in the box 245 00:08:50,870 --> 00:08:48,399 at the end of the view frustum 246 00:08:52,870 --> 00:08:50,880 now we don't want this rotation we want 247 00:08:54,870 --> 00:08:52,880 the horizon in the display to look like 248 00:08:57,190 --> 00:08:54,880 the horizon out the window 249 00:08:59,990 --> 00:08:57,200 so the app flare includes an internal 250 00:09:01,750 --> 00:09:00,000 device called a d row short for d 251 00:09:03,910 --> 00:09:01,760 rotation 252 00:09:07,350 --> 00:09:03,920 that just takes the entire image and 253 00:09:09,350 --> 00:09:07,360 rotates it back to the correct angle 254 00:09:11,110 --> 00:09:09,360 we see this explicitly in video from 255 00:09:13,110 --> 00:09:11,120 other targeting pods 256 00:09:14,870 --> 00:09:13,120 when you rotate an image that's the same 257 00:09:16,870 --> 00:09:14,880 size as the screen then you get black 258 00:09:19,750 --> 00:09:16,880 regions and you can see the rotating 259 00:09:21,110 --> 00:09:19,760 rectangle that's the original image 260 00:09:23,829 --> 00:09:21,120 notice here you don't see the black 261 00:09:25,829 --> 00:09:23,839 regions when zoomed in 262 00:09:27,590 --> 00:09:25,839 something else you see in this video is 263 00:09:32,710 --> 00:09:27,600 glare 264 00:09:35,030 --> 00:09:32,720 radiation that spills out around a 265 00:09:37,430 --> 00:09:35,040 bright or hot object 266 00:09:39,430 --> 00:09:37,440 this is often just a circular or oval 267 00:09:41,590 --> 00:09:39,440 shape but can also have spikes in 268 00:09:43,670 --> 00:09:41,600 various directions these spikes can be 269 00:09:45,350 --> 00:09:43,680 long or short and the shape of the glare 270 00:09:47,030 --> 00:09:45,360 can be unrelated to the shape of the 271 00:09:49,430 --> 00:09:47,040 plane 272 00:09:52,389 --> 00:09:49,440 in this video there's a burning car very 273 00:09:54,310 --> 00:09:52,399 hot and a large diffraction spike 274 00:09:56,150 --> 00:09:54,320 you see the spike rotate dramatically 275 00:09:58,949 --> 00:09:56,160 here and at one point we see the message 276 00:10:00,389 --> 00:09:58,959 gimbal gimbal roll pop up on screen 277 00:10:03,269 --> 00:10:00,399 before a major correction and glare 278 00:10:08,069 --> 00:10:05,750 earlier in the video we see the rotation 279 00:10:09,990 --> 00:10:08,079 of a smaller glare it's not as dramatic 280 00:10:11,670 --> 00:10:10,000 but it is rotating 281 00:10:14,470 --> 00:10:11,680 then we zoom out letting us see the 282 00:10:16,389 --> 00:10:14,480 original frame before d rotation 283 00:10:22,550 --> 00:10:16,399 notice that the glare rotates at the 284 00:10:27,110 --> 00:10:24,949 this is because glare orientation is 285 00:10:28,949 --> 00:10:27,120 relative to the camera 286 00:10:31,509 --> 00:10:28,959 rotate the camera and the background 287 00:10:33,350 --> 00:10:31,519 will rotate but the glare angle will 288 00:10:36,470 --> 00:10:33,360 remain unchanged 289 00:10:38,389 --> 00:10:36,480 you can see this with glare in an iphone 290 00:10:40,949 --> 00:10:38,399 and look at the pod's eye view here with 291 00:10:44,150 --> 00:10:40,959 a glare added the orientation of the 292 00:10:47,030 --> 00:10:44,160 glare does not change 293 00:10:50,870 --> 00:10:47,040 so what eventually ends up on screen 294 00:10:53,430 --> 00:10:50,880 is the pod's eye view derotated 295 00:10:56,550 --> 00:10:53,440 since the d row d rotates the entire 296 00:10:59,110 --> 00:10:56,560 image and the background has rotated but 297 00:11:01,750 --> 00:10:59,120 the glare is fixed to the camera 298 00:11:07,110 --> 00:11:01,760 then the end result is the background 299 00:11:11,190 --> 00:11:09,110 it's important to remember the d row 300 00:11:13,590 --> 00:11:11,200 isn't responsible for the glare rotating 301 00:11:16,310 --> 00:11:13,600 independently of the background the d 302 00:11:18,710 --> 00:11:16,320 row affects the entire image the same 303 00:11:21,269 --> 00:11:18,720 the separation of glare and background 304 00:11:23,670 --> 00:11:21,279 rotation has already happened 305 00:11:25,829 --> 00:11:23,680 all the d-row is doing is rotating the 306 00:11:27,509 --> 00:11:25,839 entire image to put the horizon in the 307 00:11:29,430 --> 00:11:27,519 right place 308 00:11:31,910 --> 00:11:29,440 so now we've got a simulation of how a 309 00:11:33,829 --> 00:11:31,920 glare would behave with these angles we 310 00:11:36,230 --> 00:11:33,839 can see it already looks fairly similar 311 00:11:39,509 --> 00:11:36,240 to the actual video rotating the same 312 00:11:41,750 --> 00:11:39,519 amount and at about the same times 313 00:11:43,750 --> 00:11:41,760 there are a couple of differences 314 00:11:45,670 --> 00:11:43,760 in the simulation with the early rolls 315 00:11:48,150 --> 00:11:45,680 of the jet we see little rotations of 316 00:11:49,509 --> 00:11:48,160 the glare as the pod roll adjusts to the 317 00:11:52,150 --> 00:11:49,519 perfect angle 318 00:11:55,190 --> 00:11:52,160 but in the real video the target remains 319 00:11:57,190 --> 00:11:55,200 fixed in place for the first 20 seconds 320 00:11:59,350 --> 00:11:57,200 and then when the target makes these big 321 00:12:01,670 --> 00:11:59,360 rotations they happen in steps in the 322 00:12:04,949 --> 00:12:01,680 real video but in the simulation is a 323 00:12:08,470 --> 00:12:06,710 to understand this we need to understand 324 00:12:10,629 --> 00:12:08,480 the inner workings of the app layer 325 00:12:11,990 --> 00:12:10,639 there's the two big external gimbals the 326 00:12:14,470 --> 00:12:12,000 pitch and roll 327 00:12:16,470 --> 00:12:14,480 but there are also one or two additional 328 00:12:18,550 --> 00:12:16,480 internal gimbals that can steer the line 329 00:12:20,389 --> 00:12:18,560 of sight with mirrors 330 00:12:22,550 --> 00:12:20,399 these can be used to steer the line of 331 00:12:25,110 --> 00:12:22,560 sight without using roll 332 00:12:27,750 --> 00:12:25,120 they are used to avoid gimbal lock near 333 00:12:29,750 --> 00:12:27,760 what is called the gimbal singularity 334 00:12:31,269 --> 00:12:29,760 but could also be used for a variety of 335 00:12:32,949 --> 00:12:31,279 other situations 336 00:12:35,430 --> 00:12:32,959 they are described in various patterns 337 00:12:37,750 --> 00:12:35,440 from raytheon we don't know the exact 338 00:12:39,350 --> 00:12:37,760 configuration or how exactly they were 339 00:12:40,629 --> 00:12:39,360 programmed to operate at the time of 340 00:12:42,550 --> 00:12:40,639 this video 341 00:12:44,310 --> 00:12:42,560 but we do know they are commonly used 342 00:12:46,870 --> 00:12:44,320 and they give the camera about five 343 00:12:49,829 --> 00:12:46,880 degrees of flex where you can keep on 344 00:12:51,990 --> 00:12:49,839 target with the internal gimbals even if 345 00:12:53,910 --> 00:12:52,000 the external gimbals are a bit off i 346 00:12:56,230 --> 00:12:53,920 suspect what's going on is that it's 347 00:12:59,110 --> 00:12:56,240 trying to minimize use of role to 348 00:13:01,030 --> 00:12:59,120 prevent loss of target lock as well as 349 00:13:03,269 --> 00:13:01,040 optimally positioning the system for 350 00:13:05,430 --> 00:13:03,279 likely future movements 351 00:13:07,829 --> 00:13:05,440 this is discussed a bit in the patents 352 00:13:10,389 --> 00:13:07,839 saying that the role axis may require 353 00:13:12,710 --> 00:13:10,399 significant power and is not fast or 354 00:13:14,150 --> 00:13:12,720 agile and may not be particularly 355 00:13:16,310 --> 00:13:14,160 accurate 356 00:13:18,230 --> 00:13:16,320 so using the role axis only for short 357 00:13:19,750 --> 00:13:18,240 periods of time makes sense if there's 358 00:13:23,269 --> 00:13:19,760 another system that can take up the 359 00:13:27,750 --> 00:13:25,430 how much slack is needed 360 00:13:29,829 --> 00:13:27,760 well we can take the angle of the glare 361 00:13:31,910 --> 00:13:29,839 in the video extracted with image 362 00:13:34,389 --> 00:13:31,920 processing techniques and de-noise with 363 00:13:37,030 --> 00:13:34,399 keyframing we can then use that in the 364 00:13:38,870 --> 00:13:37,040 simulation to directly control the roll 365 00:13:41,110 --> 00:13:38,880 angle of the pod 366 00:13:47,030 --> 00:13:41,120 this is the green line in the graph and 367 00:13:50,150 --> 00:13:48,870 so now at last we can get to our four 368 00:13:51,110 --> 00:13:50,160 observables 369 00:13:53,910 --> 00:13:51,120 first 370 00:13:55,750 --> 00:13:53,920 no rotation while banking 371 00:13:58,230 --> 00:13:55,760 the simplest explanation for why there 372 00:14:00,550 --> 00:13:58,240 is no rotation in the first 20 seconds 373 00:14:01,430 --> 00:14:00,560 is because the pod is avoiding using 374 00:14:03,430 --> 00:14:01,440 roll 375 00:14:06,150 --> 00:14:03,440 if we look at the angular distance 376 00:14:08,150 --> 00:14:06,160 between the white dot the target 377 00:14:10,550 --> 00:14:08,160 and the green dot the line of sight 378 00:14:13,910 --> 00:14:10,560 driven by the glare angle then they stay 379 00:14:16,389 --> 00:14:13,920 very close actually within 2.2 degrees 380 00:14:18,710 --> 00:14:16,399 over the first 20 seconds 381 00:14:20,550 --> 00:14:18,720 with 5 degrees of flex from the internal 382 00:14:22,949 --> 00:14:20,560 gimbals there's no need for the slight 383 00:14:25,509 --> 00:14:22,959 corrections we'd need with just the two 384 00:14:28,470 --> 00:14:25,519 external gimbals 385 00:14:31,030 --> 00:14:28,480 however if this actually was a real 386 00:14:32,629 --> 00:14:31,040 object 10 miles away and this was its 387 00:14:34,949 --> 00:14:32,639 actual shape 388 00:14:36,870 --> 00:14:34,959 then when the plane banks the entire 389 00:14:38,949 --> 00:14:36,880 scene should rotate 390 00:14:41,110 --> 00:14:38,959 so if this was a real source of shaped 391 00:14:44,389 --> 00:14:41,120 craft then it should also rotate with 392 00:14:46,470 --> 00:14:44,399 the horizon instead it's fixed for the 393 00:14:48,870 --> 00:14:46,480 first 20 seconds 394 00:14:50,870 --> 00:14:48,880 while it's at a fixed angle the horizon 395 00:14:52,870 --> 00:14:50,880 both the artificial horizon and the real 396 00:14:56,069 --> 00:14:52,880 one indicated by the clouds and the dark 397 00:14:58,949 --> 00:14:56,079 band above them rotates 12 degrees in 398 00:15:01,350 --> 00:14:58,959 three steps over those first 20 seconds 399 00:15:03,269 --> 00:15:01,360 this is probably the most significant of 400 00:15:04,949 --> 00:15:03,279 the four observables you can see it 401 00:15:07,269 --> 00:15:04,959 simply by looking at the first 20 402 00:15:09,990 --> 00:15:07,279 seconds of the video scrub back and 403 00:15:11,750 --> 00:15:10,000 forth see the horizon rotate but the 404 00:15:14,069 --> 00:15:11,760 object does not 405 00:15:16,150 --> 00:15:14,079 either something 10 plus miles away is 406 00:15:18,150 --> 00:15:16,160 precisely mirroring the exact small 407 00:15:19,110 --> 00:15:18,160 changes in the bank angle of a random 408 00:15:23,590 --> 00:15:19,120 jet 409 00:15:27,829 --> 00:15:26,069 the second observable is bumps before 410 00:15:30,310 --> 00:15:27,839 rotation 411 00:15:32,710 --> 00:15:30,320 whenever the target rotates we see just 412 00:15:33,749 --> 00:15:32,720 before this a little bump of the entire 413 00:15:36,069 --> 00:15:33,759 scene 414 00:15:38,710 --> 00:15:36,079 this can be seen in the original video 415 00:15:41,430 --> 00:15:38,720 but it's clearer if we use opencv to 416 00:15:43,269 --> 00:15:41,440 calculate a velocity field for the video 417 00:15:45,670 --> 00:15:43,279 we see the motion of the clouds shift up 418 00:15:47,030 --> 00:15:45,680 a bit with the bump before the rotation 419 00:15:49,269 --> 00:15:47,040 starts 420 00:15:51,110 --> 00:15:49,279 this means that there's a camera motion 421 00:15:52,470 --> 00:15:51,120 just before the object's apparent 422 00:15:54,310 --> 00:15:52,480 rotation 423 00:15:56,470 --> 00:15:54,320 so either the object is zapping the 424 00:15:58,870 --> 00:15:56,480 plane with energy from 10 miles away 425 00:16:01,509 --> 00:15:58,880 just before it decides to rotate 426 00:16:03,670 --> 00:16:01,519 or it's an artifact of the camera 427 00:16:04,710 --> 00:16:03,680 the third observable is rotating 428 00:16:07,749 --> 00:16:04,720 patterns 429 00:16:09,590 --> 00:16:07,759 when the object the glare rotates we 430 00:16:11,749 --> 00:16:09,600 also see patterns of light in the 431 00:16:13,670 --> 00:16:11,759 background of the image rotate 432 00:16:14,870 --> 00:16:13,680 this is easier to see if you cover the 433 00:16:18,629 --> 00:16:14,880 glare 434 00:16:19,829 --> 00:16:18,639 rotation even when the jet is not 435 00:16:22,150 --> 00:16:19,839 banking 436 00:16:24,550 --> 00:16:22,160 this can really only be explained as an 437 00:16:26,629 --> 00:16:24,560 artifact of the camera 438 00:16:28,870 --> 00:16:26,639 finally there's the incredible 439 00:16:31,269 --> 00:16:28,880 synchronicity between the calculated 440 00:16:32,870 --> 00:16:31,279 roll the white line and the roll that's 441 00:16:35,110 --> 00:16:32,880 simply the same as the angle of the 442 00:16:37,030 --> 00:16:35,120 glare the green line 443 00:16:39,910 --> 00:16:37,040 for the first 20 seconds they are within 444 00:16:43,430 --> 00:16:39,920 about 2 degrees no need to adjust but at 445 00:16:46,629 --> 00:16:43,440 about 23 seconds we get over 2.5 degrees 446 00:16:49,030 --> 00:16:46,639 away and there's a small roll to correct 447 00:16:51,910 --> 00:16:49,040 this happens again at 26 seconds and 448 00:16:54,230 --> 00:16:51,920 then at 28.5 seconds it happens again 449 00:16:56,389 --> 00:16:54,240 but this time before the correction ends 450 00:16:57,430 --> 00:16:56,399 there's a roll of the jet in a clockwise 451 00:16:59,590 --> 00:16:57,440 direction 452 00:17:01,670 --> 00:16:59,600 which means the pod needs to rotate more 453 00:17:04,069 --> 00:17:01,680 in the counterclockwise direction so we 454 00:17:05,350 --> 00:17:04,079 get this long correction until the jet 455 00:17:06,789 --> 00:17:05,360 stops banking 456 00:17:08,710 --> 00:17:06,799 then there's one more correction like 457 00:17:10,069 --> 00:17:08,720 the others and finally we end just 458 00:17:12,390 --> 00:17:10,079 before another correction would be 459 00:17:14,390 --> 00:17:12,400 needed 460 00:17:17,429 --> 00:17:14,400 so if this isn't a glare then we've got 461 00:17:19,029 --> 00:17:17,439 an object over 10 miles away probably 30 462 00:17:20,949 --> 00:17:19,039 that somehow rotates when the jet 463 00:17:22,949 --> 00:17:20,959 rotates so it stays fixed in the 464 00:17:25,110 --> 00:17:22,959 camera's frame it's an object that 465 00:17:27,750 --> 00:17:25,120 somehow bumps the camera before it 466 00:17:29,430 --> 00:17:27,760 rotates from 10 plus miles away 467 00:17:31,590 --> 00:17:29,440 it's an object that somehow projects 468 00:17:32,470 --> 00:17:31,600 rotating light patterns that rotate with 469 00:17:34,390 --> 00:17:32,480 it 470 00:17:36,630 --> 00:17:34,400 is an object that rotates in a way that 471 00:17:38,870 --> 00:17:36,640 matches exactly the amount needed to 472 00:17:40,710 --> 00:17:38,880 stay within three degrees of a gimbal 473 00:17:42,310 --> 00:17:40,720 system tracking the target while 474 00:17:44,630 --> 00:17:42,320 minimizing roll 475 00:17:46,950 --> 00:17:44,640 but just from this one plane at this 476 00:17:48,150 --> 00:17:46,960 pitch and this bank angle 477 00:17:49,669 --> 00:17:48,160 or 478 00:17:52,070 --> 00:17:49,679 it's a glare 479 00:18:00,070 --> 00:17:52,080 rotating because of the gimbal system in 480 00:18:03,909 --> 00:18:02,230 this isn't fudging the numbers or mental 481 00:18:05,909 --> 00:18:03,919 gymnastics 482 00:18:07,710 --> 00:18:05,919 this is an open source simulation that 483 00:18:09,270 --> 00:18:07,720 you can try yourself it's at 484 00:18:10,230 --> 00:18:09,280 metabunk.org 485 00:18:12,310 --> 00:18:10,240 gimbal 486 00:18:15,110 --> 00:18:12,320 the data was all extracted from the navy 487 00:18:16,870 --> 00:18:15,120 videos and you can verify that 488 00:18:19,110 --> 00:18:16,880 there's extensive discussion threads on 489 00:18:20,710 --> 00:18:19,120 metabunk about all of this where i 490 00:18:22,390 --> 00:18:20,720 discuss what i'm showing here and you 491 00:18:24,789 --> 00:18:22,400 can see the process of discovery and 492 00:18:26,630 --> 00:18:24,799 figuring stuff out 493 00:18:28,950 --> 00:18:26,640 this isn't just me 494 00:18:31,270 --> 00:18:28,960 lots of people have done similar work 495 00:18:33,350 --> 00:18:31,280 the lack of rotation was brought up by a 496 00:18:35,029 --> 00:18:33,360 twitter user called reality seeker and 497 00:18:37,590 --> 00:18:35,039 was probably noticed by others before 498 00:18:40,310 --> 00:18:37,600 that the role of aircraft pitch was 499 00:18:41,909 --> 00:18:40,320 raised by metabunk user marcus who also 500 00:18:43,830 --> 00:18:41,919 extracted the glare angle and 501 00:18:45,270 --> 00:18:43,840 demonstrated the close match with 502 00:18:47,750 --> 00:18:45,280 expected raw 503 00:18:49,669 --> 00:18:47,760 other people have done similarly 504 00:18:51,830 --> 00:18:49,679 there were also additional discussions i 505 00:18:54,230 --> 00:18:51,840 don't have time to get into like how the 506 00:18:57,110 --> 00:18:54,240 relationship between the steering q dot 507 00:18:59,990 --> 00:18:57,120 and the azimuth verifies the 3.6 degrees 508 00:19:02,310 --> 00:19:00,000 pitch angle many people have helped many 509 00:19:04,630 --> 00:19:02,320 people agree 510 00:19:06,310 --> 00:19:04,640 i know this won't convince everyone but 511 00:19:08,789 --> 00:19:06,320 i hope it will help people understand 512 00:19:12,470 --> 00:19:08,799 the rotating glare hypothesis and why 513 00:19:13,750 --> 00:19:12,480 it's such a good fit for the data 514 00:19:15,909 --> 00:19:13,760 if you've made it all the way through 515 00:19:17,990 --> 00:19:15,919 this video and still have questions then 516 00:19:19,430 --> 00:19:18,000 i'd be happy to discuss them i'd also be 517 00:19:21,830 --> 00:19:19,440 happy to demonstrate all of this with 518 00:19:24,549 --> 00:19:21,840 the simulator over a zoom meeting live 519 00:19:26,470 --> 00:19:24,559 on youtube if you'd like 520 00:19:28,789 --> 00:19:26,480 finally i know there's a question about 521 00:19:30,710 --> 00:19:28,799 if raytheon's patents describe usage of 522 00:19:32,950 --> 00:19:30,720 the internal gimbals in this matter to 523 00:19:34,710 --> 00:19:32,960 give the arbitrary flex 524 00:19:36,549 --> 00:19:34,720 they don't exactly but they don't 525 00:19:38,710 --> 00:19:36,559 preclude it 526 00:19:40,630 --> 00:19:38,720 the hardware isn't an issue it's just a 527 00:19:43,110 --> 00:19:40,640 different algorithm and we don't know 528 00:19:44,549 --> 00:19:43,120 which highly classified algorithm was in 529 00:19:46,950 --> 00:19:44,559 use that day 530 00:19:48,630 --> 00:19:46,960 i asked the patent holder about this and 531 00:19:50,310 --> 00:19:48,640 he said he was only authorized to 532 00:19:52,470 --> 00:19:50,320 comment about what was in the public 533 00:19:55,029 --> 00:19:52,480 patents 534 00:19:58,070 --> 00:19:55,039 but we do know that this shape looks and